Predictive performance of comorbidity for 30-day and 1-year mortality in patients with bloodstream infection visiting the emergency department: a retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate whether the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) predicted short-term and long-term mortality in patients with a bloodstream infection visiting the emergency department (ED) and compare it to the often-validated National Early Warning Score (NEWS). DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study. SETTING: A tertiary hospital in the Netherlands. PARTICIPANTS: Adult patients attending the ED with a blood culture-proven infection between 2012 and 2017 were included. We collected the comorbidities from the CCI and the vital signs from the NEWS. MAIN OUTCOMES: Short-term mortality (30-day) and long-term mortality (1 year). We assessed the predictive performance by discrimination, expressed as the area under the curve (AUC). RESULTS: We included 1039 patients with a blood culture-proven infection. Mortality was 10.4% within 30 days and 27.8% within 1 year. On average patients had two comorbidities (ranging from 0 to 6). Highly prevalent comorbidities were malignancy (30.2%) and diabetes mellitus (20.5%). The predictive performance of the CCI was highest for 1-year mortality (AUC 0.696 (95%CI) (0.660 to 0.732)) and better compared with the NEWS (AUC (95% CI) 0.594 (0.555 to 0.632)). For prediction of 30-day mortality, the NEWS was superior (AUC (95% CI) 0.706 (0.656 to 0.756)) to the comorbidities of the CCI (AUC (95% CI) 0.568 (0.507 to 0.628)). CONCLUSIONS: We found that presenting comorbidity (ie, the CCI) is most useful to prognosticate long-term outcome in patients with bloodstream infection in the ED. Short-term mortality is more accurately predicted by deviating vital signs (ie, the NEWS).

The association of body temperature with antibiotic therapy and mortality in patients attending the emergency department with suspected infection.

BACKGROUND AND IMPORTANCE: Previous studies found that septic patients with normothermia have higher mortality than patients with fever. We hypothesize that antibiotic therapy is less frequently initiated if infectious patients present with normothermia to the emergency department (ED). OBJECTIVES: To examine the association of body temperature with the initiation of antibiotic therapy in patients attending the ED with suspected and proven infection. Additionally, the association of temperature with 30-day mortality was assessed. DESIGN, SETTINGS AND PARTICIPANTS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study between 2012 and 2016 at a tertiary university hospital. Adult patients attending the ED with a blood culture taken (i.e. suspected infection) and a positive blood culture (i.e. proven bacteremia) were included. EXPOSURE: Tympanic temperature at arrival was categorized as hypothermia (<36.1°C), normothermia (36.1-38.0°C) or hyperthermia (>38.0°C). OUTCOME MEASURES AND ANALYSIS: Primary outcome was the initiation of antibiotic therapy. A secondary outcome was 30-day mortality. Multivariable logistic regression was used to control for covariates. MAIN RESULTS: Of 5997 patients with a suspected infection, 45.8% had normothermia, 44.6% hyperthermia and 5.6% hypothermia. Patients with hyperthermia received more often antibiotic therapy (53.5%) compared to normothermic patients (27.6%, adjusted odds ratio [95% confidence interval], 2.59 [2.27-2.95]). Patients with hyperthermia had lower mortality (4.7%) than those with normothermia (7.4%, adjusted odds ratio [95% confidence interval], 0.50 [0.39-0.64]). Sensitivity analyses in patients with proven bacteremia (n = 934) showed similar results. CONCLUSION: Normothermia in patients presenting with infection was associated with receiving less antibiotic therapy in the ED compared to presentations with hyperthermia. Moreover, normothermia was associated with a higher mortality risk than hyperthermia.

Predicting 30-day mortality using point-of-care testing; an external validation and derivation study.

BACKGROUND: Early risk stratification for guiding treatment priority in the emergency department (ED) is becoming increasingly important. Existing prediction models typically use demographics, vital signs and laboratory parameters. Laboratory-based models require blood testing, which may cause substantial delay. However, these delays can be prevented by the use of point-of-care testing (POCT), where results are readily available. We aimed to externally validate a laboratory-based model for mortality and subsequently assessed whether a POCT model yields comparable performance. METHODS: All adult patients visiting the ED of a university hospital between January 1st, 2012 and December 31st, 2016 were retrospectively reviewed for inclusion. Primary outcome was defined as 30-day mortality after ED presentation. We externally validated one existing prediction model including age, glucose, urea, sodium, haemoglobin, platelet count and white blood cell count. We assessed the predictive performance by discrimination, expressed as Area under the Curve (AUC). We compared the existing model to an equivalent model using predictors that are available with POCT (i.e. glucose, urea, sodium and haemoglobin). Additionally, we internally validated these models with bootstrapping. RESULTS: We included 34,437 patients of whom 1,942 (5.6%) died within 30 days. The AUC of the laboratory-based model was 0.794. We refitted this model to our ED population and found an AUC of 0.812, which decreased only slightly to 0.790 with only POCT parameters. CONCLUSIONS: Our POCT-model performs similar to existing laboratory-based models in identifying patients at high risk for mortality, with results available within minutes. Although the model needs further validation and evaluation, it shows the potential of POCT for early risk stratification in the ED.

Non-adherence to antimicrobial guidelines in patients with bloodstream infection visiting the emergency department.

OBJECTIVE: Non-adherence to antimicrobial guidelines in patients with bloodstream infection can result in undertreatment, overtreatment, or equivalent treatment, and could lead to suboptimal care. Our aim was to examine the association between non-adherence and appropriate coverage as well as to assess the impact of non-adherence on 30-day mortality. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study between 2012 and 2017 at a tertiary university hospital. Adult patients attending the emergency department with a bloodstream infection were included. Adherence was defined as guideline-recommended antibiotic therapy. Non-adherence was either undertreatment (too narrow-spectrum), overtreatment (too broad-spectrum), or equivalent treatment. Outcomes were appropriate coverage (i.e. antibiotic therapy that matches in vitro susceptibility of the isolated bacteria) and 30-day mortality. RESULTS: We included 909 patients of whom 395 (43.5%) were treated adherently, 355 (39.1%) were undertreated, 87 (9.6%) were overtreated, and 72 (7.9%) received an equivalent treatment. Overtreated patients were more severely ill, whilst undertreated patients had more favorable patient characteristics. Overtreatment did not result in higher appropriate coverage, whereas undertreatment was associated with lower coverage (OR[95%CI]: 0.18 [0.12; 0.26]). Overtreatment and undertreatment were not associated with 30-day mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Guideline adherence likely depends on disease severity, because overtreatment was more often observed in patients with high disease severity and undertreatment in less severely ill patients. Undertreatment was associated lower appropriate coverage but not with higher mortality. However, this can be the result of residual confounding . Overtreatment did not result in higher appropriate antibiotic coverage nor a survival benefit . Therefore, overtreatment seems not justifiable.

Appropriate empirical antibiotic therapy and mortality: Conflicting data explained by residual confounding.

OBJECTIVE: Clinical practice universally assumes that appropriate empirical antibiotic therapy improves survival in patients with bloodstream infection. However, this is not generally supported by previous studies. We examined the association between appropriate therapy and 30-day mortality, while minimizing bias due to confounding by indication. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study between 2012 and 2017 at a tertiary university hospital in the Netherlands. Adult patients with bloodstream infection attending the emergency department were included. Based on in vitro susceptibility, antibiotic therapy was scored as appropriate or inappropriate. Primary outcome was 30-day mortality. To control for confounding, we performed conventional multivariable logistic regression and propensity score methods. Additionally, we performed an analysis in a more homogeneous subgroup (i.e. antibiotic monotherapy). RESULTS: We included 1.039 patients, 729 (70.2%) received appropriate therapy. Overall 30-day mortality was 10.4%. Appropriately treated patients had more unfavorable characteristics, indicating more severe illness. Despite adjustments, we found no association between appropriate therapy and mortality. For the antibiotic monotherapy subgroup (n = 449), patient characteristics were more homogeneous. Within this subgroup, appropriate therapy was associated with lower mortality (Odds Ratios [95% Confidence Intervals] ranging from: 0.31 [0.14; 0.67] to 0.40 [0.19; 0.85]). CONCLUSIONS: Comparing heterogeneous treatment groups distorts associations despite use of common methods to prevent bias. Consequently, conclusions of such observational studies should be interpreted with care. If possible, future investigators should use our method of attempting to identify and analyze the most homogeneous treatment groups nested within their study objective, because this minimizes residual confounding.